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Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U ….S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This … paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964909
between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the … effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution … lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium. It also highlights the conditions under which disaster risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142936
public sector, it may be economically rational for those at risk not to invest in protective measures. Risk management …. These may include multi-year insurance contracts, well-enforced regulations, third-party inspections, and alternative risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104996
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which … specifications for the stochastic rare disaster probability and show that the data favor a multifrequency process. Finally, we show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073202
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062729
disaster risk that provide explanations for the equity premium puzzle, the volatility puzzle, return predictability and other …After laying dormant for more than two decades, the rare disaster framework has emerged as a leading contender to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028555
A new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the overall stock market when disaster … risk is the dominant force, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative … difference between the power-law tail parameter and the coefficient of relative risk aversion, γ. The options-pricing formula …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001208
Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We construct cross-country panel data on stock market levels and volatility and use natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and political shocks as instruments in regressions and VAR estimations. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833750
treatments respond to flood risk. We identify reactions to flood risk, distinctly from price effects due to flood damage, by … seaboard. We find that homes in high flood risk zones situated in towns that participate in public flood awareness activities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867643