market in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility … of oil prices. Our model predicts a large decline in this volatility …

future oil price volatility derived from the NYMEX futures options market. Using a dynamic model of firms' investment problem …, I find that oil companies respond to changes in expected price volatility by adjusting their drilling activity by a …

evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …

shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …

level of the fundamentals. Though volatility shocks could be important too, their propagating mechanism is still not well … can separate the level factors from the volatility factors and assess their relative importance without directly … estimating the volatility processes. This is made possible by exploiting features in the second order approximation of …

that background, we explore whether incorporating stochastic volatility improves DSGE forecasts (point, interval, and … policy rate. We find that incorporating stochastic volatility in DSGE models of macroeconomic fundamentals markedly improves … their density forecasts, just as incorporating stochastic volatility in models of financial asset returns improves their …