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Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency … taken to be. By considering tests based on conditional volatility bounds, we show that if the alternative is that one could … conditional volatility tests.If the application is to spot and forward markets, then the most powerful conditional volatility test …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141210
It is a common practice in finance to estimate volatility from the sum of frequently-sampled squared returns. However …-time assumption on the underlying returns. Under our framework, it becomes clear why and where the usual' volatility estimator fails …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762713
the United States to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied … 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial … sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126204
, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is … associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a … positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096485
explains the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and average return. The IVOL effect is negative among …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097661
Momentum strategies exhibit rare but dramatic losses (crashes), which we show are a result of the leverage dynamics of stocks in the momentum portfolio. When the economy is in a hidden turbulent state associated with a depressed and volatile stock market, the short-side of the momentum portfolio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104735
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106078
tackle several measurement issues assessing a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models. We then examine the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082768
stock price reaction to news, and hence lowering the stock return volatility. Thus, in addition to uncertainty about … fundamentals, uncertainty about CEO quality is also a source of stock return volatility, which decreases over a CEO's tenure as the …'s prospects. Overall, uncertainty about management quality appears to be an important source of stock return volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085131
that, after monetary policy announcements, the conditional volatility rises more for firms with stickier prices than for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085909