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Stochastic Components of Individual Consumption : A Time Series Analysis of Grouped Data
Attanasio, Orazio - 2010
In this paper we propose a method to characterize the time series properties of individual consumption, income and interest rates using micro data, as studies in labour economics have characterized the time series properties of hours and earnings. Our approach, however, does not remove aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760713
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Predictive Systems : Living with Imperfect Predictors
Pastor, Lubos - 2012
The standard regression approach to modeling return predictability seems too restrictive in one way but too lax in another. A predictive regression models expected returns as an exact linear function of a given set of predictors but does not exploit the likely economic property that innovations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104081
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Predictive Systems : Living with Imperfect Predictors
Pastor, Lubos - 2010
We develop a framework for estimating expected returnsmdash;a lt;igt;predictive systemlt;/igt;mdash;that allows predictors to be imperfectly correlated with the conditional expected return. When predictors are imperfect, the estimated expected return depends on past returns in a manner that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760469
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Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model
Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2006
This paper is about the properties of Markov switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We present a simple monetary policy model that switches between two regimes with known transition probabilities. The first regime, treated in isolation, has a unique determinate rational expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779321
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What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long-Standing Preference-Based Explanation
Barberis, Nicholas - 2006
explanation for this puzzle is based on prospect theory. Despite its prominence, this explanation has received little formal … scrutiny. We take up this task, and analyze the trading behavior of investors with prospect theory preferences. We find that …, at least for the simplest implementation of prospect theory, the link between these preferences and the disposition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779644
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Evaluating Welfare with Nonlinear Prices
Reiss, Peter C. - 2006
This paper examines how to evaluate consumer welfare when consumers face nonlinear prices. This problem arises in many settings, such as devising optimal pricing strategies for firms, assessing how price discrimination affects consumers, and evaluating the efficiency costs of many transfer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779746
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Environmental Investment and Policy with Distortionary Taxes and Endogenous Growth
Fullerton, Don; Kim, Seung-Rae - 2021
Recent studies consider public R&D spending that affects abatement knowledge and endogenous growth, distortionary taxes that affect physical and human capital formation, pollution taxes that affect environmental degradation, and regeneration that restores natural capital. Our model combines all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222070
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A Markov-Switching Multi-Fractal Inter-Trade Duration Model, with Application to U.S. Equities
Chen, Fei - 2012
We propose and illustrate a Markov-switching multi-fractal duration (MSMD) model for analysis of inter-trade durations in financial markets. We establish several of its key properties with emphasis on high persistence (indeed long memory). Empirical exploration suggests MSMD's superiority...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106661
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Capital Markets and Grain Prices : Assessing the Storage Approach
Keller, Wolfgang - 2018
This paper evaluates a well-known approach from the economic history literature that uses grain prices to shed light on interest rates. Although this method has been applied in influential work starting with McCloskey and Nash (1984) and has potentially wide applicability in situations where...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925271
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Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR
Müller, Ulrich K. - 2011
We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131235