Showing 31 - 40 of 616
We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750749
We consider various MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regression models to predict volatility. The models differ in the … specification of regressors (squared returns, absolute returns, realized volatility, realized power, and return ranges), in the use … data, we find that daily realized power (involving 5-minute absolute returns) is the best predictor of future volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755731
induced by the financial liberalization processes that these countries went through in the early 1990's. We find that cycles … in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries …. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230763
We examine aggregate idiosyncratic volatility in 23 developed equity markets, measured using various methodologies, and … we find no evidence of upward trends when we extend the sample until 2008. Instead, idiosyncratic volatility appears to … has relatively short duration. We also document that idiosyncratic volatility is highly correlated across countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142541
interaction of momentum with market capitalization, firm age, trading volume, and stock return volatility. However, the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130782
A central point in the recent debate about Social Security in the United States has been the extent to which the federal government should take significant positions in the equity market. But, as this paper shows, the government already has a much more significant, if implicit position in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133104
We empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield into (1) a rational forecast of long-run real dividend growth, (2) the subjectively expected risk premium, and (3) residual mispricing attributed to the market's forecast of dividend growth deviating from the rational forecast. Modigliani and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133237
We present a model in which some investors are prohibited from using leverage and other investors' leverage is limited by margin requirements. The former investors bid up high-beta assets while the latter agents trade to profit from this, but must de-lever when they hit their margin constraints....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135232
Using holdings data on a representative sample of all Shanghai Stock Exchange investors, we show that increases in ownership breadth (the fraction of market participants who own a stock) predict low returns: highest change quintile stocks underperform lowest quintile stocks by 23% per year....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135241
At a time of historic challenges to the viability of the Eurozone, we assess the contribution of the EU and the Euro to equity market integration in Europe. We use a simple and essentially model free measure of bilateral market segmentation: two countries are segmented if there is a wide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135396