formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by … professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win -- even for narrow … expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent …

strategy are common across the two models: In particular, highly inertial interest rate rules that respond to nominal income or …

the abnormal performance of defensive equity (i.e., low volatility and/or low beta strategies). While defensive strategy …

previous Boston mechanism, a priority matching mechanism, and the case in favor of the change to a strategy-proof mechanism … unassigned students could have been assigned to one of their stated choices with a different strategy under the current mechanism …. This interaction between sophisticated and unsophisticated players identifies a new rationale for strategy-proof mechanisms …

option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum's mean and … variance approximately doubles the alpha and Sharpe Ratio of a static momentum strategy, and is not explained by other factors …