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Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010

The projected path of the U.S. national debt is the major challenge facing American economic policy. Without changes in tax and spending rules, the national debt will rise from 62 percent of GDP now to more than 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade and nearly twice that level within 25...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137028

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

Engelberg, Joseph - 2010

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761765

U.S. Growth in the Decade Ahead

Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010

This paper examines the likely growth of U.S. GDP in the decade beginning in 2010. I analyze the two components of the rise in GDP over this ten year period: (1) the recovery from the substantially depressed level of economic activity at the start of the decade; and (2) the rise in potential GDP that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148647

Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows

Koijen, Ralph S. J. - 2010

We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134792

Improving GDP Measurement : a Forecast Combination Perspective

Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2011

widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120293

A Cautionary Note on Using Industry Affiliation to Predict Income

Pischke, Jörn-Steffen - 2012

Many literatures investigate the causal impact of income on economic outcomes, for example in the context of intergenerational transmission or well-being and health. Some studies have proposed to use employer wage differentials and in particular industry affiliation as an instrument for income....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100586

Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading

Daniel, Kent D. - 2016

Individuals and asset managers trade aggressively, resulting in high volume in asset markets, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations–based theories of price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999987

Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

Hirshleifer, David A. - 2018

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926415

Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Wolfers, Justin - 2006

While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780189

Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Andersen, Torben G. - 2002

volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458

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