Showing 1 - 10 of 6,247
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763699
whether the U.S. share of world oil imports is more or less than its share of OPEC asset holdings; in the long run, whether …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220415
This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101336
Separate literatures study violations of uncovered interest parity (UIP) using regression-based and portfolio-based methods. We propose a decomposition of these violations into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component that allows us to analytically relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050308
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
There are two main forces behind the large U.S. current account deficits. First, an increase in the U.S. demand for foreign goods. Second, an increase in the foreign demand for U.S. assets. Both forces have contributed to steadily increasing current account deficits since the mid--1990s. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224715
-term business survey conducted by Bank of Japan), GDP, industrial production (preliminary), PPI, CPI (Tokyo area), the unemployment … components have return impacts also have impacts on deals and volatility. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude … of surprise, is found to increase the deals and price volatility in the immediately after the announcement. In addition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152611
Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227002
structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081835