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This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087059
. With allowance for other factors holding back GDP growth during those wars, the multiplier linking government purchases to … as well. On the other hand, neoclassical models have a much lower multiplier, because they predict that consumption falls … when purchases rise. The key features of a model that delivers a higher multiplier are (1) the decline in the markup ratio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154570
taught us about such diverse subjects as the validity of the Permanent Income Hypothesis, the size of the fiscal multiplier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021490
The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987599
Tourism is a tradable service activity that could allow some African countries to generate significant growth. Tanzania …, Tanzania receives very few tourists and revenues from tourism. To explore the determinants of this performance, I conduct an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109446
Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics using instrumental variables econometrics and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use because of an econometric tragedy of the commons bias: each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131513
If there was any time to expect a large peace-time multiplier effect from federal spending in the states, it would have …. Using panel data methods we estimate a multiplier, defined as the change in per capita state economic activity in response … to an additional dollar per capita of federal funds. The state per capita personal income multiplier with respect to per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135808
We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135878
government purchases multiplier. But equally crucial is the size of the government purchases multiplicand--the change in … government purchases of goods and services that the multiplier actually multiplies. Using new data from the Bureau of Economic … government purchases multiplier, changes in government purchases have had no material effect on the growth of GDP since the time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136548
countries, (ii) the fiscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rates but is zero …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136746