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government purchases multiplier. But equally crucial is the size of the government purchases multiplicand--the change in … government purchases of goods and services that the multiplier actually multiplies. Using new data from the Bureau of Economic … government purchases multiplier, changes in government purchases have had no material effect on the growth of GDP since the time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136548
We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the United States using a rich dataset based on U.S. Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894441
This paper investigates whether U.S. government spending multipliers differ according to two potentially important features of the economy: (1) the amount of slack and (2) whether interest rates are near the zero lower bound. We shed light on these questions by analyzing new quarterly historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043271
Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics using instrumental variables econometrics and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use because of an econometric tragedy of the commons bias: each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131513
We provide explicit solutions for government spending multipliers during a liquidity trap and within a fixed exchange regime using standard closed and open-economy models. We confirm the potential for large multipliers during liquidity traps. For a currency union, we show that self-financed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100679
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076565
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal … larger is the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier … in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier effect is substantially larger than one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150737
.8. Economic theory of how to map these multipliers into a national multiplier has also advanced. Drawing on the theoretical …A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region in … Reinvestment Act and a survey of empirical studies, my preferred point estimate for a cross-sectional output multiplier is 1 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951882
policy effectiveness, output persistence and multiplier effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222039
multiplier where aggregate relationships will overstate individual elasticities. We present a brief model and then estimate the … size of the social multiplier in three areas: the impact of education on wages, the impact of demographics on crime and … group membership among Dartmouth roommates. In all three areas there appears to be a significant social multiplier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252296