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This paper examines the macroeconomic dynamics of the 2007-09 recession in the United States and the subsequent slow recovery. Using a dynamic factor model with 200 variables, we reach three main conclusions. First, although many of the events of the 2007-2009 collapse were unprecedented, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311921
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997363
This paper investigates the potential reasons for the surprisingly different labor market performance of the United States, Canada, Germany, and several other OECD countries during and after the Great Recession of 2008-09. Unemployment rates did not change substantially in Germany, increased and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043619
aid to firms at risk of bankruptcy. While this policy prevents more bankruptcies and has lower fiscal cost, it only enjoys …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833129
The financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession left the U.S. economy in an injured state. In 2013, output was 13 percent below its trend path from 1990 through 2007. Part of this shortfall--2.2 percentage points out of the 13--was the result of lingering slackness in the labor market in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053148
household's attitudes toward risk, as shown in Swanson (2012). In this paper, I analyze how frictional labor markets affect that … analysis. Household risk aversion (as measured by willingness to pay to avoid a wealth shock) is higher: 1) in countries with … in Europe are large enough to play a substantial contributing role to risk aversion in those countries. Nevertheless …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871945
shows that small to medium-sized increases in uncertainty or risk aversion are enough to recommend an expansion of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074281
Section I of this paper develops a model of income insurance in the labor market. The model differs from those of previous analyses in its focus on quantitative implications regarding the degree to which wages diverge from marginal value products, both in time-series and in cross-section data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245546
In this paper, we study the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk. We show that a substantial … portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads is accounted for by changes in global financial risk. We construct bond … measure global financial risk. Through panel regressions and local projection analysis, we find that an increase in global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351701
This paper considers the meaning of domestic and international systemic risk. It examines scenarios that have been … adduced as creating systemic risk both within countries and among them. It distinguishes between the concepts of real and … pseudo-systemic risk. We examine the history of episodes commonly viewed either as financial crises or as evidencing systemic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763704