Showing 1 - 10 of 10,791
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226952
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
Network, established in 2012, brings together researchers from around the world with access to micro-level data on individual … studies conducted in eleven countries to explore liquidity risk transmission. Among the main results is, first, that … explanatory power of the empirical model is higher for domestic lending than for international lending. Second, how liquidity risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312517
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076565
Streaming music services have exploded in popularity in the past few years, variously raising optimism and concern about their impacts on recorded music revenue. On the one hand, streaming services allow sellers to engage in bundling with the promise of increasing revenues, profits, and consumer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013191
identification strategies used, critically assess strengths and weaknesses, discuss connections with theory, and draw out potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997887
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output–the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030068
This paper investigates the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of" inflation. The known characteristics … that simple averages of price data are" unlikely to produce efficient estimates of inflation. Trimmed means produce … superior estimates" of core inflation,' which we define as a long-run centered moving average of CPI and PPI" inflation. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226558
As inflation approaches zero, it becomes increasingly important to examine the price indices on which monetary policy … index of the cost-of-living, is that there are likely to be biases in the index as a measure of inflation. In this paper we … inherent in the CPI as a measure of inflation--weighting bias. Utilizing a dynamic factor model we are able to compute the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231580