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This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, real qrowth, unemployment,and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227225
produce more radical forecasts. Since these more radical forecasts are in general less accurate, ex post forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311875
and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231598
briefly the theory and rationale underlying this approach to economic forecasting, describe the more important statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249718
to the median forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). While the MF-VAR performed poorly during 2020:Q …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311890
This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy,and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324493
common factors estimated from a large panel of data to help forecast the series of interest. This paper assesses the extent … method stands out to have smaller forecast errors. This method forecasts the series of interest directly, rather than the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230217
environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045643
inserted into these images where the recent data are most similar to the historical data. This amounts to a forecast. The … traditional probit model used to forecast recessions inappropriately treats every observation as a separate experiment. This new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080445
actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224861