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Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe
Galí, Jordi; Perotti, Roberto - 2021
discretionary budget deficit over the period 1980-2002, using data on EMU countries and control groups of non-EMU EU countries and … EMU countries has become more countercyclical over time, following what appears to be a trend that affects other … industrialized countries as well. Similarly, we find that the decline in public investment experienced over the last decade by EMU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239944
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De Facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus : Definition and Assessment
Aizenman, Joshua - 2010
We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135878
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Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
Auerbach, Alan J. - 2010
shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138770
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Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data
Owyang, Michael - 2013
A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087434
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The Time for Austerity : Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Jordà, Òscar - 2013
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076565
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External and Public Debt Crises
Arellano, Cristina - 2015
The recent debt crises in Europe and the U.S. states feature similar sharp increases in spreads on government debt but also show important differences. In Europe, the crisis occurred at high government indebtedness levels and had spillovers to the private sector. In the United States, state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017501
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The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations
Fatás, Antonio - 2016
The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987599
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Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016
Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988513
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The Euro and the Stability Pact
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2021
countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the independent fiscal policies of those countries. The … Stability and Growth Pact was an attempt to reconcile that conflict. I describe how EMU governments have chosen to ignore the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211701
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Consumption Smoothing Through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries
Arreaza, Adriana; Sørensen, Bent E.; Yosha, Oved - 2021
We measure the amount of smoothing achieved through various components of the government deficit in EU and OECD countries. For EU countries, at the 1-year frequency percent of shocks to GDP are smoothed via government consumption, 18 percent via transfers percent via subsidies, while taxes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225817