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This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774964
The recent introduction of CPI-linked bonds by several financial institutions is a milestone in the history of the U.S. financial system. It has potentially far-reaching effects on individual and institutional asset allocation decisions because these securities represent the only true long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763488
Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786351
the United States to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied … 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial … sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126204
Treasury bills and other near-money assets provide owners with liquidity service benefits that are reflected in prices in the form of a liquidity premium. I relate time variation in this liquidity premium to changes in the opportunity cost of money: The liquidity service benefits of near-money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051746
In the present paper we analyze the relationship between index funds and asset prices. In particular, our analysis of daily index fund flows indicates a strong contemporaneous correlation between fund inflows and Samp;P market returns. We also document a strong negative correlation between fund...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763384
The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its changes of volatility … volatility estimated from high-frequency data. The puzzle lies in the fact that such an intuitively natural estimate yields …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118417
, return volatility, and trading volume in the mortgage-backed security market. We find that increased disagreement is … associated with higher expected returns, higher return volatility, and larger trading volume. These results imply that there is a … positive risk premium for disagreement in asset prices. We also show that volatility in and of itself does not lead to higher …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096485
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106078
stock price reaction to news, and hence lowering the stock return volatility. Thus, in addition to uncertainty about … fundamentals, uncertainty about CEO quality is also a source of stock return volatility, which decreases over a CEO's tenure as the …'s prospects. Overall, uncertainty about management quality appears to be an important source of stock return volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085131