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U.S. Growth in the Decade Ahead
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010
This paper examines the likely growth of U.S. GDP in the decade beginning in 2010. I analyze the two components of the rise in GDP over this ten year period: (1) the recovery from the substantially depressed level of economic activity at the start of the decade; and (2) the rise in potential GDP that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148647
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Detecting Discrimination in Audit and Correspondence Studies
Neumark, David - 2010
Audit studies testing for discrimination have been criticized because applicants from different groups may not appear identical to employers. Correspondence studies address this criticism by using fictitious paper applicants whose qualifications can be made identical across groups. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137303
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The Evolution of the Black-White Test Score Gap in Grades K-3 : The Fragility of Results
Bond, Timothy - 2012
Although both economists and psychometricians typically treat them as interval scales, test scores are reported using ordinal scales. Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study and the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey, we examine the effect of order-preserving scale transformations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108244
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Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models : Results from a New Data Base
Taylor, John B. - 2010
In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy. We make use of a new data base of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models: the Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005) model, the Smets and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757616
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Field Experiments on Discrimination
Bertrand, Marianne - 2016
prevalence of discrimination, most notably audit and correspondence studies; it also describes several other measurement tools …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012997913
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Measuring Uncertainty About Long-Run Prediction
Müller, Ulrich K. - 2013
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085495
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The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting
Rogoff, Kenneth - 2008
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771554
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Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP
Feenstra, Robert C. - 2012
The latest World Bank estimates of real GDP per capita for China are significantly lower than previous ones. We review possible sources of this puzzle and conclude that it reflects a combination of factors, including substitution bias in consumption, reliance on urban prices which we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112848
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Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space
Henderson, J. Vernon - 2010
growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an … indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income … official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151806
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Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations : A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables
Feenstra, Robert C.; Heston, Alan W.; Timmer, Marcel P.; … - 2021
In this paper we propose a new approach to international comparisons of real GDP measured from the output-side. The traditional Geary-Khamis system to measure real GDP from the expenditure-side is modified to include differences in the terms of trade between countries. It is shown that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240994