Showing 1 - 10 of 547
There were substantial fluctuations in the numbers of American overseas travelers, especially before World War II. These fluctuations in travel around the robust, long term upward trend are the focus of this paper. We first identify those fluctuations in the raw data and then try to explain the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757617
Discrete choice demand models are widely used for counterfactual policy simulations, yet their out … choice models of school demand. In 2013, Boston Public Schools considered several new choice plans that differ in where …, suggesting that the choice models are indeed “structural.” Our findings show that structural demand models can effectively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943607
-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand and the supply of mortgages. Standard time series models using repeat … the loan level substantiates both supply and demand effects of past price trends in housing markets, particularly with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156426
discrete choice models of demand compared to simpler alternatives. In 2013, Boston Public Schools (BPS) proposed alternative …. Pathak and Shi (2013) estimated discrete choice models of demand using families' historical choices and these demand models … of discrete choice models of demand in our context …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059907
Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312498
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757579
Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … forecasting puzzles. It appears currently to be difficult for multivariate forecasts to improve on forecasts made using this time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761277
We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of bankruptcy over relatively long time horizons, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. We find evidence in the U.S. industrial machinery and instruments sector, based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767637
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910300
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886