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tackle several measurement issues assessing a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models. We then examine the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082768
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106078
We re-examine the Fama (1984) puzzle – the finding that ex post depreciation and interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests – for eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to June 2019. The rejection of the joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927015
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable-good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input-output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760299
We show that firms' idiosyncratic volatility obeys a strong factor structure and that shocks to the common factor in … idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) are priced. Stocks in the lowest CIV-beta quintile earn average returns 5.4% per year higher than … heterogeneous-agent model. In the model, CIV is a priced state variable because an increase in idiosyncratic firm volatility raises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054863
improvements on the performance of both the conditional CAPM and CCAPM when compared to their unconditional counterparts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763146
A number of variables are correlated with subsequent returns on the aggregate US stock market in the 20th Century. Some of these variables are stock market valuation ratios, others reflect patterns in corporate finance or the levels of short- and long-term interest rates. Amit Goyal and Ivo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767549
Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility (SV) predict that the variance of the short rate is …;unspanned stochastic volatility (USV).quot; Of the models tested, only the A1(4) USV model is found to generate both realistic volatility … estimates and a good cross-sectional fit. Our findings suggests that interest rate volatility cannot be extracted from the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783833
We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies' currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889481