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investment model succeeds in capturing average momentum profits, reversal of momentum in long horizons, as well as the … interaction of momentum with market capitalization, firm age, trading volume, and stock return volatility. However, the model … fails to reproduce procyclical momentum profits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130782
different seasonality strategies are modest, suggesting that they emanate from different common factors. Our results suggest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031014
Despite their strong positive average returns across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies can experience … infrequent and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in "panic … option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum's mean and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032704
We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are notquot; sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the centralquot; tendency was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774922
return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies — momentum. We find that momentum has ….5 percent per month between 1867 and 1907 — both statistically significantly different from zero. However, the momentum strategy … also exposed investors to large losses (crashes) during both periods. Momentum crashes were predictable — more likely when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040544
We construct portfolios of stocks and of bonds that are maximally predictable with respect to a set of ex ante observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763656
An economic tracking portfolio is a portfolio of assets with returns that track an economic variable. Monthly returns on stocks and bonds are useful in forecasting post-war US output, consumption, labor income, inflation, stock returns, bond returns, and Treasury bill returns. These forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774820
Do investors pay enough attention to long-term fundamentals? We consider the case of demographic information. Cohort size fluctuations produce forecastable demand changes for age-sensitive sectors, such as toys, bicycles, beer, life insurance, and nursing homes. These demand changes are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762482
One of the most striking portfolio puzzles is the %u201Cdisposition effect%u201D: the tendency of individuals to sell stocks in their portfolios that have risen in value since purchase, rather than fallen in value. Perhaps the most prominent explanation for this puzzle is based on prospect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779644
The returns of short-term reversal strategies in equity markets can be interpreted as a proxy for the returns from … liquidity provision. Analysis of reversal strategies shows that the expected return from liquidity provision is strongly time … the VIX during times of financial market turmoil, such as the financial crisis 2007-09. Even reversal strategies formed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117559