This paper presents techniques for modelling and estimating the behavior of financial market price or return differentials that follow non-linear regime-switching behaviour. The methodology to be used here is estimation of variants of threshold autoregression (TAR) models. In the basic model the...

This paper uses the Blanchard (1985) finite horizon model to study how taxes and government spending can be managed to stabilize aggregate demand. It is shown that tax policy cannot stabilize demand in less time than it stabilizes the public debt, but that, if government spending is the...

In the spring of 1981 the U.S. dollar began a four-year period of real appreciation that took it to a peak of more than 50 percent by first quarter 1985. Since then, the dollar has depreciated substantially, but remains above its 1980 level. During the same period, the Japanese yen first...

In a series of earlier papers we have examined the impact of exchange rate movements on employment and output in the manufacturing sector, disaggregated by industry sector and by production and non-production workers. In this paper we examine the impact of exchange rate movements on...

This paper is a chapter in the forthcoming Handbook of International Economics. It surveys the literature on the specification of models of asset markets and the implications of differences in specification for the macroeconomic adjustment process. Builders of portfolio balance models have...

This paper provides a framework for analyzing the effects of symmetric and asymmetric changes in information about risk on equilibrium real interest rate spreads across countries. Following the literature on parameter uncertainty, improvements in information are modeled as reductions in...

During the 1970s an extensive theoretical literature has developed analyzing market determination of freely floating exchange rates. At the same time, there has been extensive and continuous intervention in the market by central banks. Exchange rates have not been floating freely;they have been...

The ineffectiveness of real devaluation as stabilization policy does not imply that the nominal exchange rate should be held constant in the face of a domestic inflation. In this circumstance, import duties and export subsidies would have to be escalated to counter the potential erosion of the...

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one...

If price decisions are taken neither continuously nor in perfect synchronization, the process of adjustment of all prices to a new nominal level will imply temporary movements in relative prices. It might then well be that, to avoid these movements in relative prices, each price setter will want...