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News Shocks
Barsky, Robert - 2009
We implement a new approach for the identification of news shocks about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156463
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Improving GDP Measurement : a Forecast Combination Perspective
Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2011
Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120293
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Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
Ball, Laurence - 2011
inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has … been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent … Phillips curve with rational expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125171
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Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
Coibion, Olivier - 2013
a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can … be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey … evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073561
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The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
Andrade, Philippe - 2018
We study how changes in the value of the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation target, both in the U.S. and the euro area, using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model that incorporates the zero (or effective) lower bound on the nominal interest rate. We find that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927026
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The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target
Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2013
If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the … target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes non-vertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075868
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Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models
Kocherlakota, Narayana - 2016
Over the past thirty years, a great deal of business cycle research has been based on purely real models that abstract from the presence of nominal rigidities, and so (at least implicitly) assume that the Phillips curve is vertical. In this paper, I show that such models are fragile, in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001762
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How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?
Woodford, Michael - 2007
I consider some of the leading arguments for assigning an important role to tracking the growth of monetary aggregates when making decisions about monetary policy. First, I consider whether ignoring money means returning to the conceptual framework that allowed the high inflation of the 1970s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776198
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Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy : Outcome of Globalization?
Razin, Assaf - 2007
The paper provides a unified analysis of globalization effects on the Phillips curve and monetary policy, in a New-Keynesian framework. The main proposition of the paper is twofold. Labor, goods, and capital mobility flatten the tradeoff between inflation and activity. If policy makers are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776453
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David Laidler on Monetarism
Bordo, Michael D. - 2007
David Laidler has been a major player in the development of the monetarist tradition. As the monetarist approach lost influence on policy makers he kept defending the importance of many of its principles. In this paper we survey and assess the impact on monetary economics of Laidler's work on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778254