Debt sustainability is fundamentally a probabilistic concept: Debt is rarely sustainable with probability one. We propose an index of external debt sustainability that reflects this uncertainty. Namely we construct the index as the probability that, at the current exchange rate, net external...

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries' (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996-2020 at monthly frequency, we...

Do workers sort more randomly across different job types when jobs are harder to find? To answer this question, we study the mobility of male workers among three-digit occupations in the matched files of the monthly Current Population Survey over the 1979-2004 period. We clean individual...

The taxable income elasticity is a key parameter for predicting the effect of tax reform or designing an income tax. Bunching at kinks and notches in a single budget set have been used to estimate the taxable income elasticity. We show that when the heterogeneity distribution is unrestricted the...

This paper evaluates the tax reforms carried out in Sweden between 1980 and 1991. We use a recently developed nonparametric estimation technique to account for labor supply responses. We decompose the tax returns to study how the separate components influence hours of work, tax revenues...

We propose a nonparametric method for automatically selecting the number of autocovariances to use in computing a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. For a given kernel for weighting the autocovariances, we prove that our procedure is asymptotically equivalent to...

This paper investigates identification and inference in a nonparametric structural model with instrumental variables and non-additive errors. We allow for non-additive errors because the unobserved heterogeneity in marginal returns that often motivates concerns about endogeneity of choices...

This paper describes a simple method of calculating a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix that is positive semi-definite by construction. It also establishes consistency of the estimated covariance matrix under fairly general conditions

This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregression coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic properties of revenues, expenditures, and grants in a sample of United States municipalities. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects,...