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Only a few rich nations are currently at replacement levels of fertility and many are considerably below. We believe … that changes in the status of women are driving fertility change. At low levels of female status, women specialize in … household production and fertility is high. In an intermediate phase, women have increasing opportunities to earn a living …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759186
Despite being key to theories of economic growth and the demographic transition, evidence on how fertility responds to … aggregate income change is mixed. We analyze economic growth and fertility change in the developing world over six decades …, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 surveys in 81 countries. We find that fertility responds differently to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966598
This paper tests the differential effects of the generosity of the welfare state under free migration and under policy-controlled migration, distinguishing between source developing and developed countries. We utilize free-movement within the EU to examine the free migration regime and compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129125
Aging populations in advanced economies are placing ever-increasing demands on government spending in the form of old-age benefits. Economies that have promised substantially more benefits than they have made provision to finance are heading into a prolonged era of fiscal stress. Unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
We estimate productivities at the sector level for 72 countries and 5 decades, and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. In both country groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129215
How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays "fiscal fatigue," because its ability to increase primary balances cannot...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130260
This is the introduction and summary to the fifth phase of an ongoing project on Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World. The first phase described the retirement incentives inherent in plan provisions and documented the strong relationship across countries between social...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130978
Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136545
We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a "fiscal limit." The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136559
We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively the results of many microeconomic shocks, and show that it has significant explanatory power for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define "fundamental" volatility as the volatility that would arise from an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137610