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the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which … specifications for the stochastic rare disaster probability and show that the data favor a multifrequency process. Finally, we show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073202
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062729
Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U ….S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This … paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964909
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014091106
regional-level mitigation or adaptation, which reduces disaster risks to capital in the interim. Mitigation depends on belief … regarding the adverse consequences of global warming. Pessimism jumps with a disaster and slowly reverts in the absence of … arrivals. Mitigation spending by firms is less than first-best because of externalities. We prove that capital taxes to fund …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311024
We model the equilibrium price and quantity of risk transfer between firms and financial intermediaries. Value …-maximizing firms have downward sloping demands to cede risk, while intermediaries, who assume risk, provide less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135141
This paper examines the market for catastrophe event risk i.e., financial claims that are linked to losses associated … with natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Risk management theory suggests protection by insurers and other … transactions that look to capital markets, rather than traditional reinsurance markets, for risk-bearing capacity. These provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117926
Using a unique dataset of insurance decisions by over 1,800 large U.S. corporations, this study provides the first empirical analysis of firm behavior that compares corporate demand for property and catastrophe insurance (here, terrorism). We combine demand and supply data and apply a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120307
This paper examines the market for catastrophe event risk i.e., financial claims that are linked to losses associated … with natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Risk management theory suggests protection by insurers and other … transactions that look to capital markets, rather than traditional reinsurance markets, for risk-bearing capacity. These provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124399