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the primary deficit with future values of inflation, interest rates, GDP and narrow money growth and changes in the … through adjustments in the primary deficit (80-100%), with less substantial roles being played by inflation (0-10%) and GDP … growth (0-20%). Focusing on the relation between fiscal imbalances and inflation suggests extremely modest interactions. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760575
a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward … pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The … distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136559
In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy, aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224851
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252290
The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark's financial panic during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765571
control inflation and influence the economy in the usual ways. The paper discusses models of fiscal limits and their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays "fiscal fatigue," because its ability to increase primary balances cannot...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130260
Fiscal indiscipline is a feature of many developed countries. It is generally accepted that the source of the phenomenon lies in the common pool problem, the fact that recipients of public spending to fail to fully internalize the costs that taxpayers must assume. As a result, democratically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110082
Fiscal indiscipline is a feature of many developed countries. It is generally accepted that the source of the phenomenon lies in the common pool problem, the fact that recipients of public spending to fail to fully internalize the costs that taxpayers must assume. As a result, democratically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110161
Fiscal indiscipline is a feature of many developed countries. It is generally accepted that the source of the phenomenon lies in the common pool problem, the fact that recipients of public spending to fail to fully internalize the costs that taxpayers must assume. As a result, democratically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110192