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We implement a new approach for the identification of news shocks about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156463
employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than in non-recession years, and that supply shifts matter … significantly less (if at all) in the recession years. My results are consistent with the hypothesis that recessions are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138313
--measured with unemployment rates--and environmental concern. Building on recent research that finds internet search terms to be … useful predictors of health epidemics and economic activity, we find that an increase in a state's unemployment rate … decreases Google searches for "global warming" and increases searches for "unemployment," and that the effect differs according …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139745
and Sweden). We conduct inference with mixed frequency data, combining quarterly series for unemployment, vacancies, GDP …, consumption, and investment, with annual data on unemployment flows. Parameters and shocks are estimated separately for each … country, which can then vary in terms of search and hiring costs, workers' bargaining power, unemployment benefits levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114011
during the recession not because of any distortions with the supply of capital, but merely because labor is falling and labor … fell significantly below trend during 2008 suggests that labor usage per capita is expected to remain well below pre-recession …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120207
foregone unemployment insurance about equally erode the rewards from retaining a job, or starting a new one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096855
recovered but unemployment lingered). This paper presents a model that captures these three facts. The key elements of the model … its intended target for an extended period of time, rather than exacerbating the recession as conventional wisdom would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097777
This paper uses a sample of 116 recession episodes in developed and emerging market economies to compare the labor …-market recovery during financial crises with that of other recession episodes. It documents two new stylized facts. First, labor …-market recovery from financial crises is characterized by either higher unemployment ("jobless recovery") or a lower real wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099123
This paper examines the impact of exposure to higher unemployment rates in the pre-retirement years on subsequent … explore potential mechanisms for this health effect. Our results indicate that experiencing a recession in one's late 50s …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100989
We propose a novel theory of self-fulfilling unemployment fluctuations. According to this theory, a firm hiring an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087061