A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these … regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We build a dynamic model for GDP growth and yields that … completely characterizes expectations of GDP. The model does not permit arbitrage. Contrary to previous findings, we predict that …

What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? Some have observed an apparent …

Any economic analysis of climate change policy requires some model that describes the impact of warming on future GDP … and consumption. Most integrated assessment models (IAMs) relate temperature to the level of real GDP and consumption, but … there are theoretical and empirical reasons to expect temperature to affect the growth rate rather than level of GDP. Does …

An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher … supply hypothesis,” we show that low mortgage spreads predict an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in … subsequent GDP growth when used as an instrument. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and …

GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We …