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The European Monetary Union is stuck in a severe balance-of-payments imbalance of a nature similar to the one that destroyed the Bretton Woods System. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy have suffered from balance-of-payments deficits whose accumulated value, as measured by the Target...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118098
and Eastern Europe. These countries have experienced large current account imbalances in the transition to a market … economy. We consider a wide range of macroeconomic factors that may indicate whether such imbalances are sustainable. We find … financial systems, large fiscal imbalances, low foreign reserves, increasing foreign debt and foreign debt-burden ratios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243626
We find evidence of threshold behavior in current account adjustment for the G7 countries, such that the dynamics of adjustment towards equilibrium depend upon whether the current-account/ net-output ratio breaches estimated, country specific current account surplus or deficit thresholds. Both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098848
Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics -- the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio -- appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767437
in the US post-bubble period. But the US has worse fiscal and current account imbalances than Japan had at the same stage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767618
This paper explores the consequences of extremely low real interest rates in a world with integrated but heterogenous capital markets and nominal rigidities. We establish four main results: (i) Liquidity traps spread to the rest of the world through the current account, which we illustrate with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013171
the current situation of global imbalances. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) There is an important … resolution of global imbalances. This means that, even if there is a realignment of global growth, the world is likely to need … if global imbalances are to be resolved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777651
Three large current account imbalances -- one deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area … of each of the imbalances require a real exchange rate adjustment. According to the estimates, a large part of the U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783481
This paper looks at the short history of the Eurozone through the lens of an evolutionary approach to forming new …-through" approach towards the Eurozone crisis. We review several manifestations of this muddling through process. Greater mobility of … mature institutions in the Eurozone …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052139
Countries with high debt loads are vulnerable to an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher sovereign interest rates which in turn make the debt problems more severe. We analyze the recent experience of advanced economies using both econometric methods and case studies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077956