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We implement a new approach for the identification of news shocks about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156463
We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full employment. The trigger for the slump is a deleveraging shock, which creates an oversupply of savings. Other forces that work in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045296
The recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship between income inequality, credit booms, and financial crises. Rajan (2010) and Kumhof and Rancière (2011) propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the US in the first decade of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109860
We measure the causal effects of income and wealth on the demand for private-label products. Prior research suggests that these effects are large and, in particular, that private-label demand rises during recessions. Our empirical analysis is based on a comprehensive household-level transactions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017514
This paper addresses two critiques by Mian and Sufi (2015a, 2015b) that were released in response to the results documented in Adelino, Schoar and Severino (2015). We confirm that none of the results in our previous paper are affected by the issues put forward in these critiques; in particular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019520
We provide new facts on the debt dynamics leading up to the financial crisis of 2007. Earlier research suggests that distortions in the supply of mortgage credit, evidenced by a decoupling of credit flow from income growth, may have caused the rise in house prices and the subsequent housing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030138
explanation is correct, it has important implications for policy and for forecasts. It may weaken the case for secular stagnation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963167
This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964406
desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964893
Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of … countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912537