Showing 1 - 10 of 6,798
household's mortality risk itself to be stochastic. Annuities still help to hedge longevity risk, but they are now subject to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079164
We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates. It features correlations between innovations to forward rates and volatilities, quasi-analytical prices of zero-coupon bond options and dynamics of the forward rate curve, under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761268
Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983417
accurate and low cost computational techniques which would permit extensive use of simulation methodology. Large samples are … simulation results. This paper investigates the tradeoffs available between computational accuracy and cost in simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760360
, saving, and portfolio allocation patterns given stochastic and systematic mortality. Insurers have taken two approaches to … manage systematic mortality risks, namely self-insurance and risk transfer to purchasers of the annuity products. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119604
stochastic simulation. One can estimate, for example, the probability of a recession occurring within some fixed period in the … present procedure is that the probabilities estimated from the stochastic simulation are objective in the sense that they are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776706
normal critical values will yield actual sizes close to, but a little less than, nominal size. Simulation evidence supports …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778361
how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce … mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of … mortality events and weather forecasts for a twelve-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347542
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757579
This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125156