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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernàndez, Andrés - 2016
Most existing studies of the macroeconomic effects of global shocks assume that they are mediated by a single intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979352
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Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations
Alessandria, George - 2014
The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically and theoretically, the source and effects of fluctuations in the dispersion of producer- level sales and production over the business cycle. On the theoretical side, we study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044984
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Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects : A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia
Abeysinghe, Tilak; Forbes, Kristin J. - 2022
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries …. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292459
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Shocks, Structures or Monetary Policies? The Euro Area and Us after 2001
Christiano, Lawrence J. - 2008
. By comparison with the Fed, the ECB followed a more measured course of action. We use an estimated dynamic general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773305
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Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy : Lessons for Emu
Obstfeld, Maurice; Peri, Giovanni - 2021
How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the United States. In this paper we compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249688
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Conditional PPP and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area
Bergin, Paul R. - 2016
While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible exchange rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks. We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998959
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Medium Term Business Cycles
Comin, Diego A. - 2011
, with a non-technological shock as the exogenous disturbance. In particular the model offers a unified approach to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125764
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A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation
Eggertsson, Gauti B. - 2016
Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989734
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Business Cycles in the Euro Area
Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - 2021
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212911
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U.S. Budget Deficits and the European Economies : Resolving the Political Economy Puzzle
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2021
This paper, prepared for the annual meetings of the American Economic Association, discusses how the increases in the U.S. budget deficits since 1980 have affected the economies of Western Europe. The analysis emphasizes that U.S. deficits have not only affected these economies directly but have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226941