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We provide a nonlinear characterization of the macroeconomic impact of microeconomic productivity shocks in terms of reduced-form non-parametric elasticities for efficient economies. We also show how microeconomic parameters are mapped to these reduced-form general equilibrium elasticities. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963182
revisions in Fernald's series. When applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts sustained future productivity growth while … variables. The shock does, however, not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates as typically associated with business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963185
We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label "sentiment." This is … a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an … shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026790
This paper documents large differences across vintages in the properties of the widely-used quarterly utilization-adjusted TFP series produced by Fernald (2014), who provides updated data each quarter on his website. The most recent vintage of the adjusted TFP series has correlations with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994911
This paper investigates a real-business-cycle economy that features dispersed information about the underlying aggregate productivity shocks, taste shocks, and, potentially, shocks to monopoly power. We show how the dispersion of information can (i) contribute to significant inertia in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152678
We examine whether the aggregate U.S. business cycle is driven mainly by geographical" shocks (affecting all sectors within a state), or by sectoral shocks (affecting the same sector in all" states). We find that, at the level of an individual sector in an individual state growth are driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226989
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139130
cost shock resulting from the fracking boom, we isolate price responses to firm-specific, regional and industry-wide input …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943194
the direct impact of a shock and the magnitudes of the downstream and the upstream indirect effects. We then investigate …, capturing the fact that the local propagation of a shock to an industry will fall more heavily on other industries that tend to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019498
This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic response to shocks, relying on a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model as a flexible representation of stochastic dynamics. The TQAR model can identify zones of stability/instability and characterize resilience and traps. Resilience means...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983434