Showing 1 - 10 of 4,942
We construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with jumps in the entire state vector at deterministic times but of random magnitudes. Jump risk premia are allowed for. We show that the model implies a closed-form representation of yields as a time-inhomogenous affine function of the state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043278
We assess the development of local currency bond markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). Supported by policies and laws that helped to improve macroeconomic stability and creditor rights, many local currency EME bond markets have grown substantially over the past decade and have also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139558
Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging market sovereigns around the outbreak of COVID-19. Using 2014-2019 data, we estimate a two-factor model of global and regional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236709
The empirical literature on contagion has mainly measured the propagation of shocks across countries using daily stock markets, interest rates, and exchange rates. Several methodologies have been used for this purpose, however, the properties of the data introduces important limitations on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243366
We analyze the effect of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy on EME sovereign and corporate bond markets by focusing on two dimensions: the evolution of the structure (size and currency composition) of the bond markets and their allocations within the bond portfolios of US investors. Global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950839
This paper provides a brief survey of the relationship between the yield curve and future changes in interest rates and … inflation. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure indicates .that when the yield curve is upward sloping, future … hypothesis, yield spreads are positively correlated with future changes in short-term interest rates, particularly at long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763494
yield shocks” transmit across countries in the Eurozone. We sketch how GIVs could be useful to estimate a host of other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089927
structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081835
We develop a multicountry model in which default in one country triggers default in other countries. Countries are linked to one another by borrowing from and renegotiating with common lenders with concave payoffs. A foreign default increases incentives to default at home because it makes new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074284
We analyze the development of 49 local bond markets. Our main finding is that policies and laws matter: Countries with stable inflation rates and strong creditor rights have more developed local bond markets and rely less on foreign-currency-denominated bonds. The results suggest that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778298