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between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the … effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution … lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium. It also highlights the conditions under which disaster risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142936
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
calibrated with observed peak-to-trough disaster sizes accords with the average equity premium with a reasonable coefficient of … relative risk aversion. High stock-price volatility can be explained by incorporating time-varying long-run growth rates and … disaster probabilities. Business-cycle models with shocks to disaster probability have implications for the cyclical behavior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121059
Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U ….S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This … paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964909
-makers not to invest in adaptation measures until after it is too late. In an interdependent world with no intervention by the … public sector, it may be economically rational for those at risk not to invest in protective measures. Risk management …. These may include multi-year insurance contracts, well-enforced regulations, third-party inspections, and alternative risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104996
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062729
This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061815
To many observers, the current recession provides compelling circumstances for renewed fiscal policy activism. But the strong support for fiscal policy intervention reflects a renewed belief in policy activism that had already appeared before the present crisis. However, the recent debate about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757877
How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP and wealth? How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe? We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy analysis using a general equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150842
-varying risk of large economic disaster. This simple feature generates large, volatile and countercyclical credit spreads as well … aggregate risk premia. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in normal times, is exposed to the risk of economic … the disaster probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125570