Showing 1 - 10 of 1,083
This paper looks at the short history of the Eurozone through the lens of an evolutionary approach to forming new … institutions. The euro has operated as a currency without a state, under the dominance of Germany. This has so far allowed the euro … to achieve a number of design objectives, and this may continue, as long as Germany does not shirk its growing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013052139
(analogous to Germany today).However Bretton Woods is very different from the Eurozone in many dimensions. An even better analogy …An analogy has been made between the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and the recent Eurozone crisis. The … liabilities) and Germany (a surplus country) with large claims is seen as similar to the rising and persistent balance of payments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051313
We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045650
IMF forecasts and the EU's Fiscal Compact foresee Europe's heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact's 60 percent target. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050287
Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055510
What are the macroeconomic effects of tax adjustments in response to large public debt shocks in highly integrated economies? The answer from standard closed-economy models is deceptive, because they underestimate the elasticity of capital tax revenues and ignore cross-country spillovers of tax...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046730
This paper investigates the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in the European Union and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time varying effects of a given credit rating change. We find that changes of ratings are informative, economically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080412
We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998936
All of the attempts to end the euro crisis and to return the Eurozone countries to healthy growth rates of income and … Eurozone countries. I describe some of these fiscal options after reviewing the history of failed attempts and the options that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030065
The possibility that the euro area might break up was being raised even before the single currency existed. These scenarios were then lent new life five or six years on, when appreciation of the euro and problems of slow growth in various member states led politicians to blame the European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759842