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The Time for Austerity : Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
Jordà, Òscar - 2013
After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076565
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Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
Auerbach, Alan J. - 2010
shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138770
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Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion
Auerbach, Alan J. - 2011
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120206
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Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass
Leeper, Eric M. - 2011
substitution effects, yielding uniform comparisons across models. By constraining the multiplier to tight ranges, model and prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120209
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Country Heterogeneity and the International Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy
Favero, Carlo A. - 2011
analysis is that the question "what is the fiscal policy multiplier" is an ill-posed one. There is no unconditional fiscal … policy multiplier. The effect of fiscal policy on output is different depending on the different debt dynamics, the different … and an average fiscal multiplier is of very little use to describe the effect of exogenous shifts in fiscal policy on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121730
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Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass : Prior and Posterior Analysis
Leeper, Eric M. - 2015
We use Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary DSGE model, extended to include fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes, to quantify government spending multipliers in U.S. data. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017938
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Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics
Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola - 2015
taught us about such diverse subjects as the validity of the Permanent Income Hypothesis, the size of the fiscal multiplier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021490
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Fiscal Multipliers in the Covid19 Recession
Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter; … - 2022
In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311891
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Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion
Auerbach, Alan J. - 2012
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111029
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Economics, History, and Causation
Morck, Randall - 2011
Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics using instrumental variables econometrics and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use because of an econometric tragedy of the commons bias: each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131513