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A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - 2021
A forecasting comparison is undertaken in which 49 univariate forecasting methods, plus various forecast pooling … procedures, are used to forecast 215 U.S. monthly macroeconomic time series at three forecasting horizons over the period 1959 … - 1996. All forecasts simulate real time implementation, that is, they are fully recursive. The forecasting methods are based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218715
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The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence
Taddy, Matthew Alan - 2018
We have seen in the past decade a sharp increase in the extent that companies use data to optimize their businesses. Variously called the `Big Data' or `Data Science' revolution, this has been characterized by massive amounts of data, including unstructured and nontraditional data like text and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918102
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Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior : An Application to Realization Utility
Frydman, Cary - 2015
utility" theory of investor behavior, which posits that people derive utility directly from the act of realizing gains and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036251
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How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?
Wolfram, Catherine D. - 2014
Most of the medium-run growth in energy demand is forecast to come from the developing world, which consumed more total units of energy than the developed world in 2007. We argue that the main driver of the growth is likely to be increased incomes among the poor and near-poor. We document that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066849
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Global Energy Outlook 2015
Newell, Richard G. - 2016
This paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and inter-governmental organizations based on methods from “Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges” (Newell and Qian 2015). These...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996882
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Selecting Directors Using Machine Learning
Erel, Isil - 2018
Can algorithms assist firms in their decisions on nominating corporate directors? We construct algorithms to make out-of-sample predictions of director performance. Tests of the quality of these predictions show that directors predicted to do poorly indeed do poorly compared to a realistic pool...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923716
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Electricity Consumption and Durable Housing : Understanding Cohort Effects
Costa, Dora L. - 2011
We find that households living in California homes built in the 1960s and 1970s had high electricity consumption in 2000 relative to houses of more recent vintages because the price of electricity at the time of home construction was low. Homes built in the early 1990s had lower electricity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130975
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Dynamic Corrective Taxes with Time-Varying Salience
Gilbert, Ben - 2018
The intermittency of payment for many goods creates a disconnect between paying and consuming such that the marginal price is not always salient when consumption decisions are made. This paper derives optimal dynamic corrective taxes when there are externalities as well as internalities from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911462
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Household Electricity Demand, Revisited
Reiss, Peter C.; White, Matthew W. - 2021
Recent efforts to restructure and partially deregulate electricity markets have renewed interest in understanding how consumers respond to price changes. Several interrelated problems complicate demand analyses of these markets, including nonlinear pricing, heterogeneity in households' price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248390
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A Microeconomic Framework for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Rebound and Some Implications
Borenstein, Severin - 2014
Improving the efficiency with which we use energy is often said to be the most cost-effective way to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, such improvements usually lower the cost of using energy-intensive goods and may create wealth from the energy savings, both of which lead to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063948