the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … turns out to be crucial to the model's ability to explain both equity volatility and option prices. We explore different …

We develop a tractable and flexible stochastic volatility multi-factor model of the term structure of interest rates …

impose tight upper and lower bounds on the implied volatility …

This paper evaluates the forecasting accuracy of correlation derived from implied volatilities in dollar-mark, dollar …-yen, and mark-yen options from January 1989 to May 1995. As a forecast of realized correlation between the dollar-mark and … dollar-yen, implied correlation is compared against three alternative forecasts based on time series data: historical …

-of-sample volatility of optimized portfolios from each model. A few factors capture the general covariance structure but adding more … yield similar results. Using a tracking error volatility criterion, larger differences appear, with particularly favorable …

information-based model demonstrates that the correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts leads to return correlations … broadly in line with the data, both in levels and across countries - the correlation between predicted and actual is 0.63. Our … findings have implications for market-wide volatility - the model-implied correlations alone can explain 44% of the cross …