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How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows

Cerutti, Eugenio M. - 2017

This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948455

Liquidity, Institutional Quality and the Composition of International Equity Flows

Goldstein, Itay - 2010

FDI investors control the management of the firms, whereas FPI investors delegate decisions to managers. Therefore, direct investors are more informed than portfolio investors about the prospects of projects. This information enables them to manage their projects more efficiently. However, if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148094

Liquidity, Institutional Quality and the Composition of International Equity Outflows

Goldstein, Itay - 2010

transparency worsens. To test these hypotheses, we apply a dynamic panel model and examine the variation of FPI relative to FDI for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759578

Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2021

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218837

Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises : How it Matters and Why

Romer, Christina - 2019

In OECD countries over the period 1980–2017, countries with lower debt-to-GDP ratios responded to financial distress with much more expansionary fiscal policy and suffered much less severe aftermaths. Two lines of evidence together suggest that the relationship between the debt ratio and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871942

Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2022

common component, we find evidence for a `world business cycle' as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322115

The Global Dollar Cycle

Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - 2023

cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259726

International Cycles

Cecchetti, Stephen G.; Kashyap, Anil K. - 2021

We study twenty years of monthly production data for 11 manufacturing industries in 19 countries. Using the fact that in some countries production virtually shuts down for one summer month, together with the differences in the timing of aggregate cyclical fluctuations, we are able to learn about...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252313

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 … intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979352

Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999461