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This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two … induce volatility under flexible rates because they have portfolio-balance effects on price, whereas under fixed rates the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763111
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786275
forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458
This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate … countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for … rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761684
. Assuming that news has only country specific autocorrelation such as a heat wave. any intra-daily volatility spillovers (meteor …. Using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762800
produces two striking results: (i) Much of the observed short-term volatility in exchange rates comes from sampling the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763225
“Fixing” in the foreign exchange market is a market practice that determines the bid-ask-mid-point exchange rate at a scheduled time, 10am in Tokyo and 4pm in London. The fixing exchange rate is then applied to the settlement of foreign exchange transactions between banks and retail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979362
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international … exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231861
positively related to exchange rate volatility as well as to transportation costs. (2) Once we have controlled for these two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235585