volatility and growth can be accounted for by the real common factor, which is proportional to world growth in our empirical …Measures of economic uncertainty are countercyclical, but economic theory does not provide definite guidance on the … direction of causation between uncertainty and the business cycle. This paper proposes a new multi-country approach to the …

This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In …

realization of volatility, rather than uncertainty about the future, that has been associated with declines …We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty … shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility …

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii …) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great … Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions. On the …

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so … to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to (i) an increase in the volatility of hours relative to … output, (ii) a shrinking contribution of non-technology shocks to output volatility, and (iii) a change in the cyclical …

seen scattered among the leading economies of the region. The most traditional macroeconomic maladies of the emerging world … efforts, several structural sources of volatility remain, and new ones have emerged as a result of the new and otherwise …

cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …

saving affects foreign assets via three mechanisms: business cycle volatility, financial globalization, and Sudden Stop risk … explanations of the observed surge in reserves but business cycle volatility is not. In fact, business cycle volatility has …

Financial Cycle.” One global factor explaining an important share of the variation of risky asset prices around the world …