Hong, Harrison G.; Kubik, Jeffrey D.; Wang, Neng; Xu, Xu; … - 2021
related to forecast rationality. Forecasts in mid-May 2020 imply an earnings crash and lower earnings growth until a vaccine … arrives in 1.48 years (95% CI [0.61, 5.88]). We extend our framework to account for time-varying vaccine arrival rates. Mid …-August 2020 forecasts imply a vaccine arrival in 0.61 years (95% CI [0.35, 1.06]), which is due to positive vaccine news as …