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environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045643
This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150435
models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987123
, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231598
inserted into these images where the recent data are most similar to the historical data. This amounts to a forecast. The … traditional probit model used to forecast recessions inappropriately treats every observation as a separate experiment. This new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080445
geopolitical factors. Using data on foreign reserves of 19 countries before World War I, for which the currency composition of … hypothetical scenario where the U.S. withdraws from the world, our estimates suggest that long-term U.S. interest rates could rise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012940799
model uniformly outperforms the random walk forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760690
The prospects for a revival of nuclear power were dim even before the partial reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Nuclear power has long been controversial because of concerns about nuclear accidents, proliferation risk, and the storage of spent fuel. These concerns are real and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117387
Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760629
This paper explores the geographic overlap of trade and technology shocks across local labor markets in the United States. Regional exposure to technological change, as measured by specialization in routine task-intensive production and clerical occupations, is largely uncorrelated with regional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083804