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Debt sustainability is fundamentally a probabilistic concept: Debt is rarely sustainable with probability one. We … propose an index of external debt sustainability that reflects this uncertainty. Namely we construct the index as the … strong measures are potentially needed to reestablish sustainability. Exchange rates that appear overvalued in the baseline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941936
sustainability. Disclosure of nontraditional debt would imply significant welfare gains for the recipient countries but would reduce … its sustainability. We discuss the implications of nontraditional lending on standard assumptions of sovereign debt models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861729
Aging populations in advanced economies are placing ever-increasing demands on government spending in the form of old-age benefits. Economies that have promised substantially more benefits than they have made provision to finance are heading into a prolonged era of fiscal stress. Unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129132
analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121087
Using a recursive empirical model of the real interest rate, GDP growth, and the primary government deficit in the U.S., I solve for the ergodic distribution of the debt/GDP ratio. If such a distribution exists, the government is satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint. One key finding is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087045
The global economy has a chronic shortage of safe assets which lies behind many recent macroeconomic imbalances. This paper provides a simple model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM), its recessionary safety traps, and its policy antidotes. Safety traps share many common features with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087881
Fiscal sustainability is one of the most pressing policy issues of our time. Yet it remains difficult to quantify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064889
traditional approach to evaluate debt sustainability, and examine three alternative approaches that provide useful econometric and … model-simulation tools to analyze debt sustainability. The first approach is Bohn's non-structural empirical framework based … three approaches to analyze debt sustainability in the United States and Europe after the recent surge in public debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015096
was certified in March 2017 for fiscal years 2017-18 to 2026-27. Second, we perform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA … that the island's current debt position is unsustainable, and compute the necessary debt relief to restore sustainability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907769
examine the channels through which governments achieve fiscal sustainability. We evaluate the ability of this framework to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760575