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Haavelmo's seminal 1943 paper is the first rigorous treatment of causality. In it, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075626
We define a general class of network formation models, Statistical Exponential Random Graph Models (SERGMs), that nest standard exponential random graph models (ERGMs) as a special case. We provide the first general results on when these models' (including ERGMs) parameters estimated from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051307
This paper uses the concept of the triad census first introduced by Holland and Leinhardt, and describes several distributions on directed graphs. Methods are presented for calculating the mean and the covariance matrix of the triad census for the uniform distribution that conditions on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231609
foot-print of sector rotation has predictive power for the evolution of the economy and future bond market returns, even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135882
This analysis tests the price discovery relationship between sovereign CDS premia and bond yield spreads on the same … verified. Then, we examine whether the non-stationary CDS and bond spreads series are bound by a cointegration relationship … market moves ahead of the bond market in terms of price discovery. These findings are further supported by the Granger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118422
foreign real bonds. Bonds matter: in equilibrium, investors structure their bond portfolio to hedge real exchange rate risk … since relative bond returns are strongly correlated with real exchange rate movements. Equity home bias does not arise from … against other sources of risk, conditionally on bond returns. We estimate the optimal equity and bond portfolios implied by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118846
This note considers a relatively new form of financing for social services, the "Social Impact Bond." Proponents of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082772
important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper presents a detailed study of this phenomenon in the corporate bond … of bond and issuer controls, including bond liquidity and duration, and issuer fixed effects. This behavior is related to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084730
This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015094
We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We … stock and bond return correlations, but that other factors, especially liquidity proxies, play a more important role. The … macro factors are still important in fitting bond return volatility; whereas the "variance premium" is critical in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151357