Showing 1 - 10 of 6,521
We build on economic theory to discuss how blockchain technology can shape innovation and competition in digital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977267
) and another intrinsically worthless medium of exchange, not controlled by a central bank, such as Bitcoin. Agents can … inflation target, while Bitcoin mining is decentralized via proof-of-work. We analyze Bitcoin price evolution and interaction … between the Bitcoin price and monetary policy which targets the Dollar. We obtain a fundamental pricing equation, which in its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012922218
Since its launch in 2009 much has been written about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchains. While the discussions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307509
We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131235
history of the asset in question. A hypothetical insurance market is set up, where competing forecasting algorithms are used …. One algorithm is used by each hypothetical agent in an "ex post ante" forecasting exercise, using the available history of … forecasting algorithms.The technique is demonstrated with the NYSE portfolio, over the period of July 22, 1966 to December 31 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138666
This paper develops a vector autoregression (VAR) for time series which are observed at mixed frequencies - quarterly and monthly. The model is cast in state-space form and estimated with Bayesian methods under a Minnesota-style prior. We show how to evaluate the marginal data density to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071894
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
medium and long term forecasting. In this paper, we develop conditions under which a misspecified ARCH model successfully … performs both tasks, filtering and forecasting. The key requirement (in addition to the conditions for consistent filtering) is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776678
We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of bankruptcy over relatively long time horizons, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. We find evidence in the U.S. industrial machinery and instruments sector, based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767637
Using research designs patterned after randomized experiments, many recent economic studies examine outcome measures for treatment groups and comparison groups that are not randomly assigned. By using variation in explanatory variables generated by changes in state laws, government draft...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223006