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Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106309
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the risk of trading revenues of U.S. commercial banks. We collect … quarterly data on trading revenues, broken down by business line, as well as the Value at Risk-based market risk charge. The … across business lines. These low correlations do not corroborate systemic risk concerns. Neither is there evidence that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762521
probability distributions. This paper also explores the theoretical foundations of risk ranking, including proving a key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074912
of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224418
We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We … exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is … significantly correlated with tail risk measures extracted from S&P 500 index options, but is available for a longer sample since it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311916
We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131235
A firm's termination leads to bankruptcy costs. This may create an incentive for outside stakeholders or the firm …'s debtholders to bail out the firm as bankruptcy looms. Because of this implicit guarantee, firm shareholders have an incentive to … the guarantee-extending parties to "walk away". I derive the optimal risk management rule in such a framework and show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152555
We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other … and economically important determinants of market-based sovereign risk. Although the explanatory power of fiscal space … emergence of TED spread as a key pricing factor. However, risk-pricing of the South-West Eurozone Periphery countries is not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120304
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075857
government risk facing investors in medical innovation. This risk slows down medical innovation because investors must be …&D investors to better share the pipeline risk associated with FDA approval with broader capital markets. Using historical FDA … from offering them. Using various unique data sources, we find that FDA approval risk has a low correlation across drug …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957388