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This paper characterizes the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on economic activity in the United States in the post-war period. It does so by using a mixed structural VAR/event study approach. Identification is achieved by using institutional information about the tax...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228233
. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while … controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of … announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758030
We review the evidence on the practice and effects of discretionary fiscal policy, particularly in the context of recent efforts to stimulate the economy, reaching two main conclusions. First, policy interventions have increased in this decade, pre-dating the 2009 stimulus. Second, despite a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150639
of the RR shock has much smaller effects on GDP than in RR, typically about - .5 percentage points of GDP. I argue that … difference, exhibit impulse responses that are biased towards 0. I show that the correct impulse responses to a RR tax shock are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130256
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139130
We provide a rationale for the observed pro-cyclicality of tax policies in emerging markets and present a novel mechanism through which tax policy amplifies the business cycle. Our explanation relies on two features of emerging markets: limited access to financial markets and limited commitment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244396
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the “credit supply hypothesis,” we show that low mortgage spreads...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014671
This paper investigates whether it is possible to entertain simultaneously two attractive views about US GDP. The first is that long term growth in US GDP is attributable to an empirically plausible specification of random technical progress. The second is that deviations of GDP from a fitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321578
I use microeconomic estimates of the effect of health on individual outcomes to construct macroeconomic estimates of the proximate effect of health on GDP per capita. I employ avariety of methods to construct estimates of the return to health, which I combine with cross-country and historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762437
Major changes have taken place in the U.S. economy within the past quarter century. Changes with implications that are at least potentially important for the effect of monetary policy on real economic activity include the elimination of Regulation Q interest ceilings and the development of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310812