parametric model of risky decision making. Our results suggest that models which provide for probability transformations are most …-range probability than is proposed by the expected utility model and risk-seeking behavior over quot;long-shotquot; odds is common …The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a …

predictive distribution incorporates the parameter uncertainty, so that it is relevant for decision making under uncertainty in …

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined …) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities … are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of …

explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice …This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty …: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially …

In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky decision making can explain … utility model, a subjective expected utility model and a probability-transform model. We find that the four models considered … explain the decision-making behavior of the majority of our subjects. Surprisingly, we find that the choice behavior of the …

subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions … subsequent surveys. These findings, plus the inescapable fact that point forecasts reveal nothing about the uncertainty that … probabilistic expectations and derive measures of central tendency and uncertainty, as we do here …

Decisions take time, and the time taken to reach a decision is likely to be informative about the cost of more precise …

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of …-centered perspective on organizational decision-making under uncertainty … unpredictable phenomena can be captured accurately by probability distributions, organizational scholars commonly treat the …

This paper discusses how limited ability to assess patient risk of illness and predict treatment response may affect … ability of guideline developers and clinicians to predict patient outcomes. Recognizing that uncertainty will continue to … afflict medical decision making, I apply basic decision theory to suggest reasonable decision criteria with well …