models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …

We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call Dynamic … environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

second part offers a comparative analysis of the individual prediction series from the NBER-ASA as well as some earlier … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and … incidence of autocorrelation in the prediction errors was also much higher for inflation than for the other variables. A summary …

inserted into these images where the recent data are most similar to the historical data. This amounts to a forecast. The … traditional probit model used to forecast recessions inappropriately treats every observation as a separate experiment. This new …

Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of … prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number …

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis …

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will … determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized …

at the time of the forecast. The frequencies of significant auto-correlations among errors so measured vary greatly …